A Note on Measuring the Independent Impact of Family Planning Programs on Fertility Declines

Author:

Hernandez Donald J.12

Affiliation:

1. Center for Population Research, Kennedy Institute of Ethics, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C. 20057

2. Social Science Research Council, Washington, D.C. 20036

Abstract

Abstract This note critically evaluates recent cross-national studies that estimate the independent effect of family planning programs on the fertility of the developing world. The evaluation demonstrates that past research is biased to produce overestimates of net program impact. A new estimate is derived to account more completely for the effects of the social context and socioeconomic development on fertility. This estimate indicates that 5 percent of the variation in crude birth rate decline for 89 developing countries is due to family planning programs. This is substantially less than past estimates.

Publisher

Duke University Press

Subject

Demography

Reference33 articles.

1. Demographic Science and the Redirection of Population Policy;Blake,1965

2. Reproductive Motivation Versus Contraceptive Technology: Is Recent American Experience an Exception?;Blake;Population and Development Review,1975

3. The End of the Population Explosion;Bogue;The Public Interest,1967

4. Zero World Population Growth?;Bogue;The Public Interest,1979

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