Abstract
The general (non-spatial) stochastic epidemic is extended to allow infective individuals to move forward through a system of spatially connected locations · ··, L1, L2, · ·· (on the line) each containing susceptible individuals and the outcome of the epidemic in each of these locations is then considered. In the deterministic case, a (spatial) equilibrium solution and threshold behaviour are discussed. In the stochastic case, a (spatial) quasi-equilibrium behaviour (conditional on sufficient numbers of infectives present) is discussed; numerical results suggest some correspondence between this stochastic quasi-equilibrium and the deterministic equilibrium.
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Subject
Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty,General Mathematics,Statistics and Probability
Reference8 articles.
1. Non-negative Matrices and Markov Chains
2. The rate of spatial propagation of simple epidemics;Mollison;Proc. 6th Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Prob.,1972
3. On a functional central limit theorem for Markov population processes
4. Bounds on the velocity of spread of infection for a spatially connected epidemic process
5. Spatial contact models for ecological and epidemic spread (with discussion);Mollison;J. R. Statist. Soc.,1977
Cited by
6 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献