Justification of environmental and economic mechanisms of adaptation of agricultural production and rural areas to climate changes

Abstract

In the course of the research, an analysis of the theoretical basis of the economic-mathematical modeling of the production of agricultural crops depending on the climatic zones and their changes was made. It was established that the ultimate goal of economic-mathematical modeling is the establishment of dependencies between the components of the model, their qualitative and, if possible, quantitative characteristics. Understanding the interrelationships and interdependencies of certain social phenomena and situations makes it possible to choose the relevant tools of state or social influence. Regulation, as the process of influencing the economic or social system, involves the use of a set of administrative, economic and institutional tools. It was determined that when choosing models that allow taking into account the interdependence of socio-economic and climatic phenomena, it is expedient to adapt the existing models to the solution of the researched problems and/or create a new class of models. The correct interdependencies of socio-economic and climatic phenomena were established and their qualitative assessment was carried out. Recommendations have been developed for the use of tools capable of influencing in a given direction the establishment of interrelationships and dependencies when applying a specific climate change assessment model, in particular in the agricultural sector. It is also determined that the models of adaptation of agricultural production to climate changes should be based on the analysis of actual climate changes in the region and the country.