Multi-route choice modelling in a metropolitan context: A comparative analysis using Multinomial Logit and Fuzzy Logic based approaches

Abstract

Route choice plays a vital role in the traffic assignment and network building, as it involves decision making on part of riders. The vagueness in travellers’ perceptions of attributes of the available routes between any two locations adds to the complexities in modelling the route choice behaviour. Conventional Logit models fail to address the uncertainty in travellers’ perceptions of route characteristics (especially qualitative attributes, such as environmental effects), which can be better addressed through the theory of fuzzy sets and linguistic variables. This study thus attempts to model travellers’ route choice behaviour, using a fuzzy logic approach that is based on simple and logical ‘if-then’ linguistic rules. This approach takes into consideration the uncertainty in travellers’ perceptions of route characteristics, resembling humans’ decision-making process. Three attributes – travel time, traffic congestion, and road-side environment are adopted as factors driving people’s choice of routes, and three alternative routes between two typical locations in an Indian metropolitan city, Surat, are considered in the study. The approach to deal with multiple routes is shown by analyzing two-wheeler riders’ (e.g. motorcyclists’ and scooter drivers’) route choice behaviour during the peak-traffic time. Further, a Multinomial Logit (MNL) model is estimated, to enable a comparison of the two modelling approaches. The estimated Fuzzy Rule-Based Route Choice Model outperformed the conventional MNL model, accounting for the uncertain behaviour of travellers.