Relationship between right atrial pressure and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in patients with advanced heart failure

Abstract

Background: This study aims to investigate the association between right atrial pressure and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and to evaluate the ability of this scoring system to accurately predict the value of right atrial pressure. Methods: Between April 2016 and November 2018, a total of 137 patients (118 males, 19 females; median age: 49 years; range, 40 to 54 years) with advanced heart failure who were candidates for left ventricular assist device implantation or heart transplantation were retrospectively analyzed. We developed a formula calculated by using the biochemical and cardiac catheterization parameters of the patients. Results: There was a strong correlation between the right atrial pressure and the scores (r=0.510, p<0.001). The estimated right atrial pressure was calculated as "2 + (0.92 ¥ Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score)" (unstandardized coefficient 0.920, t value 7.674, p<0.001). The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score was found to be an independent predictor of high right atrial pressure (odds ratio=1.491, 95% confidence interval: 1.244-1.786, p<0.001). The calculated area under the curve was 0.789 (95% confidence interval: 0.710-0.867, p<0.001) and the cut-off value of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score in the prediction of high right atrial pressure was 10.5 with 75% sensitivity and 73% specificity. Conclusion: We define a method to calculate right atrial pressure obtained by using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score without the need for cardiac catheterization during the hospitalization and follow-up period of patients with advanced heart failure.