Issues of determining the effects of migration on population growth in Ulaanbaatar

Abstract

Since Mongolia's transition to a market economy in the 1990s, the “Great Migration” from rural to urban areas due to job shortages and natural disasters (droughts and dzud - disaster affecting livestock caused by severe natural conditions) in rural areas has continued. Many of these in-migrants have settled in large cities and their suburbs, especially in Ulaanbaatar, leading to many problems, including environmental pollution, traffic congestion, and overcrowding of social services. In addition, a number of studies have been conducted in Mongolia about the types of internal migration, factors influencing it, causes, characteristics of migrants, consequences and vulnerabilities. However, there is a lack of research about population location, density, settlement and their changes due to migration, especially the urban-rural population ratio, urban population growth and the impact of migration on it. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to analyze the main indicators of population migration in Ulaanbaatar, to determine its impact on population growth, to evaluate and to determine future trend. Within the framework of the study, spatial and statistical analysis of data and materials of the last 30 years (1990-2019) of the main population indicators of Ulaanbaatar was conducted and future trend was determined based on the population projections. According to the research results, in-migrants were always dominant in Ulaanbaatar from 1990 to 2019, and the intensity of migration generally increased in the years following droughts and dzuds. In addition, a total of 663.1 thousand people migrated to Ulaanbaatar from aimags and rural areas over the last 30 years, which is equal to 45.2 percent of the total population of Ulaanbaatar in 2019. As a result, urban population of Mongolia counted 2,212.9 thousand in 2020, and the urbanization rate reached 68.0 percent, of which 67.7 percent is concentrated in Ulaanbaatar alone. Between 2000 and 2009, 47.4 percent of the total in-migrants (1990-2019) or 314.5 thousand people moved to Ulaanbaatar, which was the peak of migration to Ulaanbaatar. From a population perspective, Ulaanbaatar's population is expected to reach 2.5 million or the equivalent of 50.5 percent of the total population of the country in 2050. In order to reduce overcrowding in Ulaanbaatar, it is necessary, in the future, to reduce inland migration from rual areas  to Ulaanbaatar, reduce the gap between urban and rural development levels, support and develop regional development cities, and diversify settlements system.