Development and validation of a nomogram for primary duodenal carcinoma: a multicenter, population-based study

Abstract

Aim: This study aimed to develop a predictive model for patients with duodenal carcinoma. Methods: Duodenal carcinoma patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2010–2015) and the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University (2010–2021) were enrolled. A nomogram was constructed according to least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis, the Akaike information criterion approach and Cox regression analysis. Results: Five independent prognostic factors were significantly associated with the prognosis of the duodenal carcinoma patients. A nomogram was constructed with a C-index in the training and validation cohorts of 0.671 (95% CI: 0.578–0.716) and 0.662 (95% CI: 0.529–0.773), respectively. Conclusion: The established nomogram model provided visualization of the risk of each prognostic factor.