Nomograms to predict survival rates for esophageal cancer patients with malignant behaviors based on ICD-0-3

Abstract

Aim: We aimed to investigate the effect of current treatment based on stage and histology type, which were important factors for treating esophageal cancer. Methods: Log-rank test, COX and nomograms were used for survival analysis. DCA, C-index and calibration curves were used for validation. Results: A total of 3224 patients were recruited. As for cT2-T4aM0 patients, chemotherapy and radiation prolonged overall survival (OS) for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and chemotherapy improved OS for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Meanwhile, neoadjuvant radiotherapy had longer OS than adjuvant radiotherapy for ESCC. As for T4b patients, radiation and chemotherapy correlated with better OS for ESCC and chemotherapy prolonged OS for EAC. Conclusion: Neoadjuvant radiotherapy might be optimal for cT2-T4aM0 ESCC. Radiation was recommended for T4b ESCC while chemotherapy was recommended for T4b EAC.