Development of Forecast Algorithm for Coronal Mass Ejection Speed and Arrival Time Based on Propagation Tracking by Interplanetary Scintillation g-Value

Abstract

We have developed an algorithm for tracking coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation that allows us to estimate CME speed and its arrival time at Earth. The algorithm may be used either to forecast the CME’s arrival on the day of the forecast or to update the CME tracking information for the next day’s forecast. In our case study, we successfully tracked CME propagation using the algorithm based on g-values of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observation provided by the Institute for Space- Earth Environmental Research (ISEE). We were able to forecast the arrival time (Δt = 0.30 h) and speed (Δv = 20 km/s) of a CME event on October 2, 2000. From the CME-interplanetary CME (ICME) pairs provided by Cane & Richardson (2003), we selected 50 events to evaluate the algorithm’s forecast capability. Average errors for arrival time and speed were 11.14 h and 310 km/s, respectively. Results demonstrated that g-values obtained continuously from any single station observation were able to be used as a proxy for CME speed. Therefore, our algorithm may give stable daily forecasts of CME position and speed during propagation in the region of 0.2–1 AU using the IPS g-values, even if IPS velocity observations are insufficient. We expect that this algorithm may be widely accepted for use in space weather forecasting in the near future.