Solar Influence on Tropical Cyclone in Western North Pacific Ocean

Abstract

Solar activity is known to be linked to changes in the Earth’s weather and climate. Nonetheless, for other types of extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones (TCs), the available evidence is less conclusive. In this study the modulation of TC genesis over the western North Pacific by the solar activity is investigated, in comparison with a large-scale environmental parameter, i.e., El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For this purpose, we have obtained the best track data for TCs in the western North Pacific from 1977 to 2016, spanning from the solar cycle 21 to the solar cycle 24. We have confirmed that in the El-Niño periods TCs tend to form in the southeast, reach its maximum strength in the southeast, and end its life as TSs in the northeast, compared with the La-Niña periods. TCs occurring in the El-Niño periods are found to last longer compared with the La-Niña periods. Furthermore, TCs occurring in the El-Niño periods have a lower central pressure at their maximum strength than those occurring in the La-Niña periods. We have found that TCs occurring in the solar maximum periods resemble those in the El-Niño periods in their properties. We have also found that TCs occurring in the solar descending periods somehow resemble those in the El-Niño periods in their properties. To make sure that it is not due to the ENSO effect, we have excluded TCs both in the El-Niño periods and in the La-Niña periods from the data set and repeated the analysis. In addition to this test, we have also reiterated our analysis twice with TCs whose maximum sustained winds speed exceeds 17 m/s, instead of 33 m/s, as well as TCs designated as a typhoon, which ends up with the same conclusions.