How Do Young Provisional Drivers Who Crash Early Compare With Those Who Only Crash Later?

Abstract

Much attention has been given to the elevated crash rates of young novice drivers when first driving unsupervised, particularly in the initial six months, but less to the question of whether those who crash during that period are in any way different from those who only crash subsequently. This question was examined in a large cohort of New South Wales novices aged under 25 years at their first licensing, which occurred in the financial year 2007/08. Only post-learner drivers were considered, and divided into three driver groups, early crashers within the first six months, late crashers whose first crash was later, and non-crashers. All factors derivable from the routine records provided were analysed including metropolitan residence and aggregate socio-economic status as determined by post-code of residence. Overall, the largest differences were between those who crashed and those who did not. Females were under-represented among both early and late crashers. Age, aggregate socio-economic status, and metropolitan residence at first licensing did not differ between early and late crashers, but late crashers had spent less time driving supervised. Early crashers had crashed and incurred traffic citations, including for serious offences, more frequently than late crashers, with more crashes judged at-fault. However, exclusion of offences occurring on the same day as a crash reduced the difference between early and late crashers. The difference between crashers and non-crashers was reduced but remained significant.