Using Meteorological Early Warning System (MEUS) and Meteorological Indices for Assessment of Manavgat Forest Fires Occurred in Turkiye July-August 2021

Abstract

Forest fires are one of the natural disasters that severely affect ecosystems, damage property and threat human life. An early warning system helps people respond to dangers promptly and appropriately. In the scope of this study, the forest fires occurred in Manavgat province of Antalya in Turkiye between 28 July 2021 and 6 August 2021 was analyzed using the meteorological early warning system (MEUS), which is developed by the Turkish State Meteorology Service. The performance of the model products was assessed and the association between the weather conditions in the region and the forest fire was evaluated. To examine the synoptic models, hourly meteorological data and MEUS warnings data were obtained two days before the Manavgat forest fire, and the probabilities generated by the meteorological variables that may be effective in the preparation of fire conditions in the region were evaluated in the study.