Stuck in the ‘Grey Zone’: fsQCA of Post-Communist Semi-Democracies

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of semi-democracy as a distinct but under-researched outcome among 12 of the 29 European and post-Soviet post-communist states. Institutional theory’s limitations in explaining enduring semi-democracy suggest other approaches may offer new insights, specifically realist international relations theory, given the concentration of unresolved conflicts, asymmetrical trade dependencies on regional powers, and revolutionary overthrows of government among the 12 semi-democracies. The study uses fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis, incorporating both established institutional and novel power-relational conditions drawn from realist IR theory, finding that 10 of the cases fit four explanatory patterns, which suggest that institutional conditions do matter for democratization but are intertwined with and subordinated to realist conditions.