Causality in the Polish Housing Market: Evidence from Biggest Cities

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to examine the causal relationship between the real property prices in biggest Polish cities within VAR model framework. Both offer and transactional prices are used. Existing stock market, as well as primary market are analysed. The data are quarterly and taken from 17 biggest Polish cities. The analysed period is 2006-2015. Both VAR and VECM approaches were applied. Their limitations and possible predictions were discussed. A significant interaction between various regional real estate markets in Poland has been observed. However, the leading role of the capital city could not be confirmed by the methodology used.