Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Canadian Nationwide Analysis-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Canadian Nationwide Analysis

Published:2024-03-18 Issue: Volume: Page:
ISSN:0002-9270
Container-title:American Journal of Gastroenterology
language:en
Short-container-title:Am J Gastroenterol

Author:

Coward Stephanie¹^ORCID,Benchimol Eric I.²³⁴⁵^ORCID,Bernstein Charles N.⁶,Avina-Zubieta Antonio⁷,Bitton Alain⁸,Carroll Matthew W.⁹^ORCID,Cui Yungsong¹⁰^ORCID,Hoentjen Frank¹¹^ORCID,Hracs Lindsay¹,Jacobson Kevan¹²^ORCID,Jones Jennifer L.¹³^ORCID,King James¹^ORCID,Kuenzig M. Ellen⁴¹⁴^ORCID,Lu Na¹⁵,El-Matary Wael¹⁶,Murthy Sanjay K.¹⁷^ORCID,Nugent Zoann¹⁸,Otley Anthony R.¹⁹^ORCID,Panaccione Remo¹,Peña-Sánchez Juan Nicolás²⁰^ORCID,Singh Harminder²¹²²^ORCID,Targownik Laura E.²³^ORCID,White Dominic²⁴^ORCID,Windsor Joseph W.¹^ORCID,Kaplan Gilaad G.¹^ORCID,

Affiliation:

1. Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada;

2. SickKids Inflammatory Bowel Disease Centre, Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, The Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids), Toronto, Ontario, Canada;

3. Department of Paediatrics and Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;

4. Child Health Evaluative Sciences, SickKids Research Institute, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;

5. ICES, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;

6. Department of Medicine, and the University of Manitoba IBD Clinical and Research Centre, Max Rady College of Medicine, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada;

7. Division of Rheumatology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada;

8. Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, McGill University and McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada;

9. Division of Gastroenterology and Nutrition, Department of Pediatrics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada;

10. Atlantic PATH, Faculty of Medicine, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada;

11. Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada;

12. Department of Pediatrics, Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, Faculty of Medicine, British Columbia Children's Hospital and British Columbia Children Hospital Research Institute, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada;

13. Department of Medicine & Clinical Health and Epidemiology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada;

14. SickKids Inflammatory Bowel Disease Centre, Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;

15. Arthritis Research Canada, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada;

16. Department of Pediatrics, and the Children's Hospital Research Institute of Manitoba, Max Rady College of Medicine, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada;

17. The Ottawa Hospital IBD Centre and Department of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;

18. University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada;

19. Department of Pediatrics, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada;

20. Department of Community Health & Epidemiology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada;

21. Departments of Medicine and Community Health Sciences, the University of Manitoba IBD Clinical and Research Centre, Max Rady College of Medicine, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada;

22. CancerCare Manitoba Research Institute, CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada;

23. Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mount Sinai Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;

24. Newfoundland and Labrador Centre for Health Information, St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada.

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Canada has a high burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Historical trends of IBD incidence and prevalence were analyzed to forecast the Canadian burden over the next decade. METHODS: Population-based surveillance cohorts in 8 provinces derived from health administrative data assessed the national incidence (2007–2014) and prevalence (2002–2014) of IBD. Autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to forecast incidence and prevalence, stratified by age, with 95% prediction intervals (PI), to 2035. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated for the forecasted incidence and prevalence. RESULTS: The national incidence of IBD is estimated to be 29.9 per 100,000 (95% PI 28.3–31.5) in 2023. With a stable AAPC of 0.36% (95% CI −0.05 to 0.72), the incidence of IBD is forecasted to be 31.2 per 100,000 (95% PI 28.1–34.3) in 2035. The incidence in pediatric patients (younger than 18 years) is increasing (AAPC 1.27%; 95% CI 0.82–1.67), but it is stable in adults (AAPC 0.26%; 95% CI −0.42 to 0.82). The prevalence of IBD in Canada was 843 per 100,000 (95% PI 716–735) in 2023 and is expected to steadily climb (AAPC 2.43%; 95% CI 2.32–2.54) to 1,098 per 100,000 (95% PI 1,068–1,127) by 2035. The highest prevalence is in seniors with IBD (1,174 per 100,000 in 2023; AAPC 2.78%; 95% CI 2.75–2.81). DISCUSSION: Over the next decade, the Canadian health care systems will contend with the juxtaposition of rising incidence of pediatric IBD and a rising prevalence of overall IBD driven by the aging population.

Funder

Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust

Canadian Institutes of Health Research

Publisher

Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)

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