Impact of Forced Migration on the Labor Market in Ukraine (the Analytical and Predictive Aspect)

Abstract

The article examines the peculiarities of migration processes that occurred in connection with the full-scale military intervention on the territory of Ukraine. In particular, it was found that a significant number of migrants who settled in European countries already work today and pay taxes in the countries of residence. Also, the study showed that forced migration led to a decrease in certain professional groups in Ukraine, which are mostly women. Further, it was found that the labor market in Ukraine has shown flexibility and adaptability to the challenges of wartime. Undoubtedly, the economic crisis has dealt a significant blow to the labor market, but, despite the expectations of the aggressor neighbor, it has not destroyed it. A separate estimation is given to internal forced migration of the population, the regions of Ukraine that have experienced the greatest load in connection with these processes are identified. The problems in the labor market, which were provoked by the massive uncontrolled movement of citizens, are considered. The unemployment rate was estimated according to the results of 2022, which, according to official data, was less than at the time of the outbreak of war. It should be noted that such information should be perceived critically, because not all persons of working age are registered as unemployed. At the same time, due to the analytical and prognostic aspect of the study, it was found that the future of Ukraine lies in the latest educational programs, innovations and investments, which as a result will improve the microclimate in the labor market. However, the implementation of these ambitious plans should be preceded by effective government decisions and the development of real mechanisms for change, as well as, of course, reducing pressure on business, in particular by eradicating corruption in public authorities. The systematic analysis conducted during the study led to an unequivocal conclusion: economic recovery and, accordingly, stabilization in the labor market should begin today in those regions that are not in the combat zone. This will allow identifying and examining weaknesses, also testing the system for flexibility to external factors. After the end of the war, these regions will become a reliable economic rear for those territories that need recovery and adjustment of the labor market.