Modeling the current and projected distribution of Brazilian peppertree Schinus terebinthifolia Raddi (Anacardiaceae) in the Americas

Abstract

Abstract Global biodiversity is under substantial threat due to biological invasions, a problem exacerbated by climate change. Such invasions have detrimental effects on the environment, economy, and human health, resulting in significant financial burdens. Recently, understanding these challenges has become a highlighted priority within the scientific community. This study focuses on the evaluation of Schinus terebinthifolia, native to South America, and its invasive spread into North and Central America, which has resulted in wide distribution and considerable impact. The primary objectives of this study include analyzing the potential distribution of the species under current and future climate scenarios, identifying the areas where its climatic niche is changing. Data collection encompassed a vast dataset of over 30,000 occurrence records of this species, from the following databases: (1) The Global Biodiversity Information Facility provided 22,163 records (GBIF), (2) The virtual Herbarium Reflora contributed 1,438 records, and NeoTropTree made available 6,591 records. Following a rigorous filtering process, 992 occurrences were considered for modeling. In this process, we utilized climate data and climate projections, employing various algorithms, with an emphasis on the consensus model methodology. The research results reveal a clear trend of reduced habitat suitability for S. terebinthifolia, especially under scenarios of high global warming. This accentuates the urgency of implementing emission control measures and mitigation strategies. Additionally, the study underscores the crucial importance of continuous monitoring, as well as actions for controlling and restoring affected ecosystems. The significant role played by S. terebinthifolia in both its native and invaded areas highlights the need for comprehensive management approaches. In the face of climate change and biodiversity threats, this study provides insightful observations on the dynamics of biological invasions. Success in addressing these issues relies on close cooperation between the scientific community, policymakers, land managers, and local communities. This collaboration is essential for guiding and conducting conservation and biodiversity management efforts in an ever-evolving world.