Probabilistic structure of an annual extreme rainfall series of a coastal area of the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract

This study aimed to describe the probabilistic structure of the annual series of extreme daily rainfall (Preabs), available from the weather station of Ubatuba, State of São Paulo, Brazil (1935-2009), by using the general distribution of extreme value (GEV). The autocorrelation function, the Mann-Kendall test, and the wavelet analysis were used in order to evaluate the presence of serial correlations, trends, and periodical components. Considering the results obtained using these three statistical methods, it was possible to assume the hypothesis that this temporal series is free from persistence, trends, and periodicals components. Based on quantitative and qualitative adhesion tests, it was found that the GEV may be used in order to quantify the probabilities of the Preabs data. The best results of GEV were obtained when the parameters of this function were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The method of L-moments has also shown satisfactory results.