Evolution and projection of knee arthroplasties from 2003 to 2030 in the state of São Paulo

Abstract

SUMMARY OBJECTIVE Analyze data regarding total knee arthroplasty (TKA) carried out by the Public Health System (SUS) in the state of São Paulo from 2003 to 2010 and determine the projections expected for 2030. METHODS A cross-sectional study (observational). We analyzed 10,952 patients who underwent primary total knee arthroplasty (PTKA) and revision total knee arthroplasty (RTKA) in the state of São Paulo between 2003 and 2010. The collection of data based on ICD-10 and HAA (Hospital Admission Authorization) were provided by the Tabnet and Sigtap software (Management System for the Table of Procedures, Medications, and OPM by SUS). The following variables were analyzed: gender, number of PTKAs and RTKAs, and their projections. The information collected formed a database developed in Excel® for Windows, and the statistical analysis was performed by the Stata® 11 SE and Minitab 16 software. RESULTS There was a significant difference in the prevalence of TKA between genders (p<0.0001); most of the patients were females (7,891; 72%). The projection for 2030 when compared with the first year of the series, 2003, indicates a growth of 428% for PTKA and 1,380% for RTKA, with a greater increase percentage of RTKA in males than in females (1,558% and 1,318%, respectively). CONCLUSION The proportions of the RTKA projection are much greater than those of PTKA by 2030, with a greater percentage of increase of RTKA in males than in females.