Impacts of Future Climate Predictions on Second Season Maize in an Agrosystem on a Biome Transition Region in Mato Grosso State

Abstract

Abstract Climate change promotes variations in climatic elements necessary for crop growth and development, such as temperature and rainfall, potentially impacting yields of staple crops. The objective of this study was to assess future climate projections, derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and their impacts on second season maize in a region of Mato Grosso state. Field experiments in the 15/16 season comprising different sowing dates and hybrids maturities in rainfed conditions were used for crop model adjustment and posterior simulation of experiments. Crop simulations comprised historical (1980-2010) and future (2010-2100) time frames combined with local crop management practices. Results showed decreases of 50-89% in grain yields, with the most pessimistic scenarios at the latest sowing date at the end of the century. Decreases in the duration of crop cycle and in the efficiency of water use were observed, indicating the negative impacts of projected higher temperatures and drier conditions in crop development. Results highlight the unfeasibility of practicing late sowing dates in second season for maize in the future, indicating the necessity of adjusting management practices so that the double-cropping production system is possible.