Affiliation:
1. Universidade do Extremo Sul Catarinense, Brasil
Abstract
The objective of this work was to evaluate the mathematical modeling of rainfall of duration less than one hour using the modified Bartlett-Lewis model with six parameters. The data used were for the period October 1980 to December 2007, from recording rain gauges (pluviographs) at the meteorological station of Epagri, Urussanga, south of Santa Catarina (latitude 28.31° S, longitude 48.19 ° W). Based on simulations of series with 100 years of data it can be concluded that: the adjustment of the parameters of the modified Bartlett-Lewis model enables the simulation of rain at intervals as small as 5 minutes of duration, preserving the statistical properties of precipitation over various intervals of aggregation in time. In general there was a tendency toward overestimation of the probability of dry periods and underestimation of the covariance for intervals of 24 hours, especially in summer. The total annual rainfall simulated for all time intervals examined remains within the confidence interval of 95%.
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