Fall accidents in older people: a time trend analysis of the period 2000-2020 and the estimated economic burden on the Brazilian health system in 2025

Abstract

Abstract Longitudinal monitoring of indicators of accidental falls can facilitate the planning of effective care and prevention actions. This article aims to analyze temporal trends in variables related to falls among older persons in Brazil and in the state of São Paulo during the period 2000-2020 and estimate the projected economic burden on the health system in 2025. We conducted a quantitative retrospective observational study using data from the Health Information System. The Joinpoint Regression Program version 4.7.0 and SPSS version 20.0 were used to perform linear regression and calculate the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC), adopting a 95% confidence interval. There was an increase in mean and total admissions costs due to falls at national level in both intervals of the study period. There was an increase in total admissions costs and the total number of admissions due to falls in the state of São Paulo (AAPC of 8.5% and 4.3%, respectively). Projections for the year 2025 suggest that the total number of admissions due to falls in Brazil will be around 150,000, resulting in costs of approximately R$ 260 million. There was an increase in the variables analyzed by this study, revealing the importance of fall prevention programs associated with national public policies.