Predicting the number of cases of dengue infection in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil, using a SARIMA model

Abstract

This study aimed to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of dengue in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil, using time series analysis. The model was performed using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Firstly, we fitted a model considering monthly notifications of cases of dengue recorded from 2000 to 2008 in Ribeirão Preto. We then extracted predicted values for 2009 from the adjusted model and compared them with the number of cases observed for that year. The SARIMA (2,1,3)(1,1,1)12 model offered best fit for the dengue incidence data. The results showed that the seasonal ARIMA model predicts the number of dengue cases very effectively and reliably, and is a useful tool for disease control and prevention.