Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions

Abstract

This study analyzes the long-term trend of the burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population, from 1990 to 2019, and make predictions for the next decade. Based the data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD 2019), the joinpoint regression model was used to reflect the temporal trend of the burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the burden of disease over the next decade. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of the Chinese female population were higher than the global rates, and the gap due to residential radon increased over time. The burden of lung cancer attributable to solid fuels has shown a significant downward trend while that due to residential radon has increased slightly overall, but remains lower than the former. The burden of lung cancer increased with age, and the peak age of DALYs rates changed from 70 < 75 years in 1990 to 75 < 80 years in 2019. The model predicted that the burden of lung cancer attributable to solid fuels will gradually decrease over the next decade, whereas the burden of lung cancer due to residential radon will gradually increase and surpass the burden due to solid fuels in 2023. Residential radon will become a more important factor of household air pollution than solid fuels in the next decade for the Chinese female population. Future interventions targeted at household air pollution are needed to reduce the burden of lung cancer.