A time series analysis of Prochilodus nigricans landings caught by small-scale fisheries in the lower stretch of the Amazon River

Abstract

We developed a time series analysis using data on curimatã (Prochilodus nigricans), which landed in Santarém, a small city located on the right banks of the Amazon River. A 10-year record of monthly average catches per day of P. nigricans was analyzed using forecasting procedures in the open-source software GRETL 1.7.8. We established two models from the identifications made with the correlograms of hyperparametrization and seasonal differences. The autoregressive terms of the model reach three years, indicating that individuals of the species are being caught around the age of three. This may indicate that the curimatãs in the landings at Santarém from 1992 to 2002 were more than two years old, potentially a sign of a lack of fishing pressure on the lower age groups.