A new method to estimate genetic gain in annual crops

Abstract

The genetic gain obtained by breeding programs to improve quantitative traits may be estimated by using data from regional trials. A new statistical method for this estimate is proposed and includes four steps: a) joint analysis of regional trial data using a generalized linear model to obtain adjusted genotype means and covariance matrix of these means for the whole studied period; b) calculation of the arithmetic mean of the adjusted genotype means, exclusively for the group of genotypes evaluated each year; c) direct year comparison of the arithmetic means calculated, and d) estimation of mean genetic gain by regression. Using the generalized least squares method, a weighted estimate of mean genetic gain during the period is calculated. This method permits a better cancellation of genotype x year and genotype x trial/year interactions, thus resulting in more precise estimates. This method can be applied to unbalanced data, allowing the estimation of genetic gain in series of multilocational trials.