Prediction of the natural distribution and conservation of Urena lobata L. in Brazil

Abstract

ABSTRACT Urena lobata L. is a commercial species used for fiber extraction in the Brazilian states of Amazonas and Pará that presents relevant socioeconomic importance for the Amazon region. Despite its importance and wide distribution throughout Brazil, there are no data on the species response to global climate change. This study aimed to present the potential geographical distribution of U. lobata in the current period (2009-2019) and predict areas of climatic suitability for its occurrence in two future scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), at two time intervals (2020-2050 and 2051-2070), in the face of global climate change. A total of 19 bioclimatic variables were obtained from the WorldClim database and four algorithms (Climate Space Model, Envelope Score, Niche Mosaic and Environmental Distance), from which the Envelope Score was the most representative model for the species to verify its occurrence along the Brazilian phytogeographic domains (Amazon, Caatinga, Cerrado, Pantanal, Atlantic Forest and Pampa). Vulnerability was observed for the species, since there were losses of favorable areas in the Amazon, Pantanal, Atlantic Forest, Cerrado and Caatinga, becoming practically extinct in the worst scenario (RCP 8.5), in the year 2070. However, for this same scenario and year, there was a significant area increase in the Pampa.