Reliability analysis of built concrete dam

Abstract

Abstract The conventional design of concrete gravity dams still follows the deterministic method, which does not directly quantify the effect of uncertainties on the safety of the structure. The theory of structural reliability allows the quantification of safety of these structures, from the quantification of the inherent uncertainties in resistance and loading parameters. This article illustrates application of structural reliability theory to the case study analysis of a built concrete gravity dam. Results show that reliability of the built structure is greater than that of the designed structure. The study compares reliability for design conditions, with the corresponding safety coefficients, illustrating a lack of linearity between safety coefficients and reliability. Furthermore, the study shows which are the failure modes and the design parameters with greater influence on dam safety.