CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS FOR THE CHOICE OF THE LEADERS OF THE BRAZILIAN PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Abstract

ABSTRACT The Brazilian national elections of 2018 constitute a milestone as the first election in the history of the Brazilian public administration in which there was restriction of donations of legal entities. This paper aims to analyze the influence of economic power on electoral choice, for which a prediction model based on financial and political-ideological variables is proposed, identifying if the odds ratio is increased for candidates with greater economic-financial disposition. We proposed a logistic regression model and estimated the probability of success in the electoral campaign and its relationship with the variables. We collected the data from the open base of the Brazilian Electoral Justice, totaling a universe of 46,867 valid applications in 2018 and 2014. The results show a new logistic regression model, in which it was verified that the candidate's condition to seek his re-election is the factor of greater relationship with the ratio of chances of electoral success, increasing by 6 times the chances of a candidate succeeding in the election. Economic-financial variables of interest confirmed the influence that economic power has on the election process in the same way as the dominant ideology in central government, leaving the results of financing by legal entities conflicting.