Theoretical analysis of development traps: On the example of Russia

Abstract

Russia still has a large pool of high-quality human capital and, despite certain limitations, access to the advanced technologies needed for transition from a resource-based to a knowledge-based economy. Despite this potential, the gap between Russia and the developed countries was not narrowing for the last ten years. Russian economy falls into a development trap. The paper offers a theoretical analysis of the development trap. It provides solutions that may help to escape the development trap and close the income gap with the developed countries. The Ramsey model with a convex-concave production function is used for the paper. The convexity of the function is the cause of multiple equilibria. Country may move to a higher equilibrium, but under certain conditions a country cannot overcome the “gravity” of a lower equilibrium and remain in development trap. High investment risks, dependence on the export of fossil fuels and excessive investment in resource and energy-intensive industries led the Russian economy into a development trap. Convergence Russia with the most developed countries with high per capita incomes requires a profound diversification of the Russian economy grounded on a massive replacing natural resources and resource-intensive industries with the human capital.