Prediction of the impact of climate change on the thermal performance of walls and roof in Morocco

Abstract

Abstract Climate change has become a real challenge in different fields, including the building sector. Understanding and assessing the impact of climate change on building energy performance is still necessary to elaborate new climate-adaptive design measures for future buildings. The building energy consumption for heating and cooling is mainly related to the building envelope thermal performance. In this study, the winter heat loss and summer heat gain indicators are proposed to assess and analyse the potential impact of climate change on opaque building envelope elements for different climate zones in Morocco over the next 40 years. For that purpose, a one-dimensional heat transfer model is used to simulate the heat transfer through the multi-layer structure of the wall/roof. A medium climate change scenario is considered in this study. The results showed that the current average walls and roof summer heat gain is expected to increase of about 19.2–54.3% by the 2060s depending on the climate zone, versus a less important decrease in winter heat loss varies between –10.6 and –20.6%. This paper provides a reliable evaluation of the climate change impact on building envelope thermal performance, which leads to better adjustments in future building envelope designs.