Afghanistan's mineral fortune: prospects for fuelling a green transition?

Abstract

Abstract Research conducted over the last four decades emphasizes the growing importance of Afghanistan's mineral resources as a potential driver for economic growth. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimates this fortune could be worth as much as $900 billion USD in key metals and materials essential for the energy transition. However, a protracted civil war, corruption, absent or deficient infrastructure and extreme water stress prevent the extractive sector from becoming a key pillar of the Afghan economy. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of Afghanistan's mineral fortune and the prospects and obstacles of mining post-US withdrawal under Taliban rule. Five core components are provided in this analysis. First, a historical overview of Afghanistan's mineral resource development will be presented. Tapping into Afghanistan's mineral fortune requires a deep understanding of the Afghan people, and countries should not view investment through only a political risk lens, but rather take a holistic approach that incorporates environmental and social governance by giving a fair portion of the mineral wealth to the Afghan people. Second, a brief overview of the key mineral deposits and research conducted into Afghanistan's reserves will be provided. This paper builds on previous research identifying six specific provinces and deposits with the highest mineral production potential (MPP) from the original 24 areas of interest (AOIs) provided by USGS. Third, the authors emphasize the importance of water for the future of Afghanistan's mining sector and the nexus with water (in)security dynamics that will impact the stability of the country if overlooked. Overlaying various Geographic Information Systems (GIS) maps (watersheds, food insecurity, water stress, geohazards and water depletion) helps identifying which of the six provinces with highest mineral production potential has the highest risk of water (in)security threats from mining. Fourth, we provide a review of the current security and mining landscape under the Taliban regime, and the challenges and opportunities for investment in the country. China's growing interest in Afghanistan and warming relations with the Taliban beg the question what role Beijing will play, if any, as the next intervening power in Afghanistan's history. Finally, this chapter concludes with some general policy recommendations for moving forward in the context of a post-US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Investment in Afghan mining is an investment in the Afghan people.