ECONOMIC MODELING OF CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE IN IRAN

Abstract

Global warming is the immediate consequence of increased greenhouse gasses emission. Agriculture is a significant source in terms of greenhouse gasses emission and on the other hand, the main sector in terms of producing food. As global food demand grows, the share of agriculture in the total greenhouse gasses emission will rise too. Therefore, agriculture needs to cut the greenhouse gasses emission. A response to the two important issues today, i.e. achieving food security and reducing greenhouse gasses emission is climate-smart agriculture. According to the Paris Agreement, an international effort to reduce greenhouse gasses emission, Iran has to decrease 12 percent of its greenhouse gasses emission by 2050, which all sectors have to contribute. Since the pathway to define strategies, is to explore the challenges; in this study, a seemingly unrelated regression technique has been used to model the climate-smart agriculture in Iran. Three main sub-sectors of agriculture; i.e. crops, livestock, and aquatics production, have been considered in the model to find the role of them in delivering food security and emitting greenhouse gasses. The findings show livestock and aquaculture sectors have had a positive significant impact in achieving food security. On the other hand, these sectors have had a positive significant effect on the emitting greenhouse gasses. Cropping system was not found to have a significant role in achieving food security and emitting greenhouse gasses in Iran although the expected signs (+) has been confirmed by the model. New research to explore appropriate technical and behavioral innovations needs to do on the specific-product-sector to be climate-friendly and sustainable. On the consumers hand, an encouragement to a more healthy diet with more vegetable, where is possible, also can reduce emissions. Finally, the key message from the assessments is the future legislative outlines for mitigation, adaptation and resource management as well as consumer behavior for how agriculture can deal with climate change.