ASSESSING SERBIA`S CEREALS EXPORT TO THE MIDDLE EAST MARKETS

Abstract

Agriculture, especially cereal production, is one of the few sectors in which Serbia has a significant comparative advantage. Due to the policy of approaching the EU, almost all grain exports are placed in a few EU countries, which are not end-users but are also significant producers and resellers on the world market. This increases the risk of external shocks and reduces earnings from exports, while end importers pay a higher price. This research aims to determine the complementarity between Serbia’s exports of cereals and the import demand of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. For these purposes, the markets analysis was conducted (including food safety indicators), and two different import-export matching coefficients were applied. Serbia’s competitiveness in relation to the current suppliers of MENA for each type of cereals was assessed. The results showed high trade complementarity in terms of corn and wheat with all countries in the region, while for a few of them, it was barley. The trade routes for each type of cereal specified in this research are guidelines for engaging the government in export promotion.