EFFECTS OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY ON THE VOLATILITY OF PALESTINIAN FOOD PRICES

Author:

Ihle Rico1,El-Jafari Mahmoud Khader2,von Cramon-Taubadel Stephan3

Affiliation:

1. Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands

2. Institute of Business and Economics, Al-Quds University, Abu Deis-Jerusalem, Palestine

3. Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Chair of Agricultural Policy, Georg-August-Universität, Göttingen, Germany

Abstract

Political instabilities and violent political conflict have in recent years risen substantially throughout the world. Especially in the Middle East and North Africa they have grown to decisive factors permanently challenging the livelihoods of millions. We assess whether and to what extent varying intensities of conflict impact economic activity in Palestine which has been subject to substantial violent political conflict for decades. In particular, we analyse the relationship between various intensity levels of political instability measured by conflict-caused fatalities and uncertainty of weekly food prices in the West Bank between 2004 and 2011 using a GARCH model. We consider four food commodities covering vegetables, fruits and animal products. Banana and milk prices are found not to show clustered volatility while onion and pear prices do. The impact of varying conflict intensities on weekly average prices appears to be modest. This might suggest that effects happen on a temporally and geographically more disaggregated scale.

Publisher

Bononia University Press

Subject

Economics and Econometrics,Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous),Geography, Planning and Development

Reference45 articles.

1. Akkaya S., Fiess N., Kaminski B., Raballand G., 2008. Economics of ‘Policy-Induced’ Fragmentation: The Costs of Closures Regime to West Bank and Gaza. World Bank Middle East and North Africa Working Paper Series No. 50, January.

2. Anderson K., Ivanic M., Martin W.J., 2014. Food price spikes, price insulation, and poverty. In: The economics of food price volatility, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 331-339.

3. Baltussen W., Drabik D., Dries L., van Galen M., Gardebroek C., Ihle R., Logatcheva K., Oosterkamp E., 2019. Monitoring of prices and margins in EU food supply chains – Existing and Alternative Approaches. JRC Technical Report JRC114719, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, DOI: 10.2760/197814.

4. Bar Nahum Z., 2012. Demand, Competitiveness, and Regulations in the Israeli Fluid Milk Market. Contributed paper at the Second Israeli I.O. Day: “Industrial Organization, Regulation, and Competition Policy in Israel”, Tel Aviv, Israel.

5. Bar Nahum Z., Finkelshtain I., Kan I., 2013. Estimating Political and Market Power in the Israeli Fluid Milk Market. Contributed paper at the 29th Annual Conference of the Israel Economic Association, Tel Aviv, Israel.

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