Stochastic Modeling of Long-Term Waste Package Degradation Incorporating Expert Elicitation on Corrosion Processes

Abstract

AbstractThe Viability Assessment (VA) of the potential repository for high-level nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada was completed [1]. In the VA design concept, a two-layer waste container provides the primary component of the engineered barrier system (EBS). The VA reference design specifies a 100-mm thick carbon steel as the outer barrier and a 20-mm thick Alloy 22 as the inner barrier. A stochastic simulation model was developed to analyze long-term performance of the waste package in the potential repository. The model was developed by incorporating the latest corrosion data and models for the candidate waste package materials and the information developed from the Waste Package Degradation Expert Elicitation (WPDEE) [2].The reference case results showed that only a small fraction of waste packages fail by localized corrosion (i.e., pit penetrations). The analysis also indicated the degradation mode that is most important to long-term waste package degradation is general corrosion (or passive dissolution) of the inner barrier under dripping conditions. However, the general corrosion rates for dripping conditions used in the analysis have a range over three to five orders of magnitude. This is due mainly to a lack of information on local chemical and electrochemical conditions on the inner barrier after the outer barrier breach. This paper discusses further the areas and issues that need improvement to reduce uncertainty in the waste package degradation analysis. It also discusses additional waste package degradation modes and associated processes that need to be included in the future analysis for the potential repository to enhance the confidence of the analysis.