Stochastic Simulation of Pitting Degradation of Multi-Barrier Waste Container in the Potential Repository at Yucca Mountain

Abstract

AbstractA detailed stochastic waste package degradation simulation model was developed incorporating the humid-air and aqueous general and pitting corrosion models for the carbon steel corrosion-allowance outer barrier and aqueous pitting corrosion model for the Alloy 825 corrosion-resistant inner barrier. The uncertainties in the individual corrosion models were also incorporated to capture the variability in the corrosion degradation among waste packages and among pits in the same waste package. Within the scope of assumptions employed in the simulations, the corrosion modes considered, and the near-field conditions from the drift-scale thermohydrologic model, the results of the waste package performance analyses show that the current waste package design appears to meet the ‘controlled design assumption’ requirement of waste package performance, which is currently defined as having less than 1% of waste packages breached at 1,000 years [1]. It was shown that, except for the waste packages that fail early, pitting corrosion of the corrosion-resistant inner barrier has a greater control on the failure of waste packages and their subsequent degradation than the outer barrier. Further improvement and substantiation of the inner barrier pitting model (currently based on an elicitation) is necessary in future waste package performance simulation model.