The Role of Statistics in Characterizing Nuclear Waste Package Behavior

Abstract

AbstractThe characterization of nuclear waste package behavior is primarily based on the outcome of laboratory tests, where components of a proposed waste package are either individually or simultaneously subjected to simulated repository conditions. At each step of a testing method, both controllable and uncontrollable factors contribute to the overall uncertainty in the final outcome of the test. If not dealt with correctly, these sources of uncertainty could obscure or distort important information that might otherwise be gleaned form the test data. This could result in misleading or erroneous conclusions about the behavior characteristic being studied. It could also preclude estimation of the individual contributions of the major sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. Statistically designed experiments and sampling plans, followed by correctly applied statistical analysis and estimation methods will yield the most information possible for the time and resources spent on experimentation, and they can eliminate the above concerns. Conclusions reached on the basis of such information will be sound and defensible. This presentation is intended to emphasize the importance of correctly applied, theoretically sound statistical methodology in characterizing nuclear waste package behavior.