Modeling the dynamics of key integrated indicators for the COVID-19 spread in St. Petersburg

Abstract

The author carried out the modeling of the dynamics of key integrated indicators for the COVID-19 outbreak in St. Petersburg, Russia. The dynamics of infection, recovery and mortality in the region was analyzed based on the monitoring data of the Coordination Council to control the incidence of the novel coronavirus infection in St. Petersburg. The analysis showed that it was possible to quickly make a shortterm forecast for the pandemic spread based on the polynomial regression of integral indicators. Through forecasting, administrative and sanitary institutions have the possibility to make suitable management decisions on the creation of normal conditions for maintaining the public health. For citation: Gerasimenko PV. Modeling the dynamics of key integrated indicators of the COVID-19 spread in St. Petersburg. City Healthсare. 2023;4(1): 83-89 doi: 10.47619/2713-2617.zm.2023.v.4i1;83-89.