Population structure and genetic connectivity of Plasmodium falciparum in pre-elimination settings of Southern Africa

Abstract

To accelerate malaria elimination in the Southern African region by 2030, it is essential to prevent cross-border malaria transmission. However, countries within the region are highly interconnected due to human migration that aids in the movement of the parasite across geographical borders. It is therefore important to better understand Plasmodium falciparum transmission dynamics in the region, and identify major parasite source and sink populations, as well as cross-border blocks of high parasite connectivity. We performed a meta-analysis using collated parasite allelic data generated by microsatellite genotyping of malaria parasites from Namibia, Eswatini, South Africa, and Mozambique (N = 5,314). The overall number of unique alleles was significantly higher (P ≤ 0.01) in Namibia (mean A = 17.3 ± 1.46) compared to South Africa (mean A = 12.2 ± 1.22) and Eswatini (mean A = 13.3 ± 1.27, P ≤ 0.05), whilst the level of heterozygosity was not significantly different between countries. The proportion of polyclonal infections was highest for Namibia (77%), and lowest for Mozambique (64%). A was significant population structure was detected between parasites from the four countries, and patterns of gene flow showed that Mozambique was the major source area and Eswatini the major sink area of parasites between the countries. This study showed strong signals of parasite population structure and genetic connectivity between malaria parasite populations across national borders. This calls for strengthening the harmonization of malaria control and elimination efforts between countries in the southern African region. This data also proves its potential utility as an additional surveillance tool for malaria surveillance on both a national and regional level for the identification of imported cases and/or outbreaks, as well as monitoring for the potential spread of anti-malarial drug resistance as countries work towards malaria elimination.