Development and validation of a machine learning model to predict prognosis in liver failure patients treated with non-bioartificial liver support system

Abstract

Background and objectivesThe prognosis of liver failure treated with non-bioartificial liver support systems is poor. Detecting its risk factors and developing relevant prognostic models still represent the top priority to lower its death risk.MethodsAll 215 patients with liver failure treated with non-bioartificial liver support system were retrospectively analyzed. Potential prognostic factors were investigated, and the Nomogram and the Random Survival Forests (RSF) models were constructed, respectively. Notably, we evaluated the performance of models and calculated the risk scores to divide patients into low-risk and high-risk groups.ResultsIn the training set, multifactorial Cox regression analysis showed that etiology, hepatic encephalopathy, total bilirubin, serum alkaline phosphatase, platelets, and MELD score were independent factors of short-term prognosis. The RSF model (AUC: 0.863, 0.792) performed better in prediction than the Nomogram model (AUC: 0.816, 0.756) and MELD (AUC: 0.658, 0.700) in the training and validation groups. On top of that, patients in the low-risk group had a significantly better prognosis than those in the high-risk group.ConclusionWe constructed the RSF model with etiology, hepatic encephalopathy, total bilirubin, serum alkaline phosphatase, platelets, and MELD score, which showed better prognostic power than the Nomogram model and MELD score and could help physicians make optimal treatment decisions.