Exploration of a nomogram prediction model of 30-day survival in adult ECMO patients

Abstract

ObjectiveTo investigate the factors of 30-day survival in ECMO patients, establish a nomogram model, and evaluate the predictive value of the model.MethodsA total of 105 patients with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) were admitted to the Department of Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, from January 2018 to March 2021. Cox regression analysis screened out the risk factors. Based on the results of multivariate analysis, the nomogram model was established by using R software, and the discrimination of the model was verified by bootstrap and calibration.ResultsThe results showed that sex, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II score, disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) score before ECMO initiation and average daily dose of norepinephrine were independent risk factors for prognosis. Verify that the nomogram model is verified by bootstrap internally, and the corrected C-index is C-index: 0.886, showing a good degree of discrimination. The calibration curve (calibration) showed that the nomogram model had good agreement. The decision curve analysis(DCA) curve shows good clinical validity above the two extreme curves. Kaplan–Meier curves were drawn for patients in the tertile and compared with the first and second groups. The third group predicted the worst 30-day prognosis for ECMO patients.ConclusionThe nomogram prediction model constructed based on the sex, APACHE II and DIC score, average daily dose of norepinephrine can effectively screen out the factors affecting the prognosis and provide a reference for individualized treatment of ECMO patients.