Predictive Value of Glycosylated Hemoglobin for Post-operative Acute Kidney Injury in Non-cardiac Surgery Patients

Abstract

ObjectiveRecent studies have indicated that patients (both with and without diabetes) with elevated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) have a higher rate of acute kidney injury (AKI) following cardiac surgery. However, whether HbA1c could help to predict post-operative AKI in patients after non-cardiac surgery is less clear. This study aims to explore the predictive value of pre-operative HbA1c for post-operative AKI in non-cardiac surgery.MethodsWe reviewed the medical records of patients (≥ 18 years old) who underwent non-cardiac surgery between 2011 and 2020. Patient-related variables, including demographic and laboratory and procedure-related information, were collected, and univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the association of HbA1c with AKI. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement index (NRI), and integrated discriminant improvement index (IDI) were used to evaluate the predictive ability of the model, and decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical utility of the HbA1c-added predictive model.ResultsA total of 3.3% of patients (94 of 2,785) developed AKI within 1 week after surgery. Pre-operative HbA1c was an independent predictor of AKI after adjustment for some clinical variables (OR comparing top to bottom quintiles 5.02, 95% CI, 1.90 to 13.24, P < 0.001 for trend; OR per percentage point increment in HbA1c 1.20, 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.33). Compared to the model with only clinical variables, the incorporation of HbA1c increased the model fit, modestly improved the discrimination (change in area under the curve from 0.7387 to 0.7543) and reclassification (continuous net reclassification improvement 0.2767, 95% CI, 0.0715 to 0.4818, improved integrated discrimination 0.0048, 95% CI, -5e-04 to 0.0101) of AKI and non-AKI cases, NRI for non-AKI improvement 0.3222, 95% CI, 0.2864 to 0.3580 and achieved a higher net benefit in decision curve analysis.ConclusionElevated pre-operative HbA1c was independently associated with post-operative AKI risk and provided predictive value in patients after non-cardiac surgery. HbA1c improved the predictive power of a logistic regression model based on traditional clinical risk factors for AKI. Further prospective studies are needed to demonstrate the results and clinical application.