Author:
Nogueira Matheus Carvalho Alves,Nobre Vandack,Pires Magda Carvalho,Ramos Lucas Emanuel Ferreira,Ribeiro Yara Cristina Neves Marques Barbosa,Aguiar Rubia Laura Oliveira,Vigil Flavia Maria Borges,Gomes Virginia Mara Reis,Santos Camila de Oliveira,Miranda Davi Mesquita,Durães Pamela Andrea Alves,Costa Josiane Moreira da,Schwarzbold Alexandre Vargas,Gomes Angélica Gomides dos Reis,Pessoa Bruno Porto,Matos Carolina Cunha,Cimini Christiane Corrêa Rodrigues,Carvalho Cíntia Alcântara de,Ponce Daniela,Manenti Euler Roberto Fernandes,Cenci Evelin Paola de Almeida,Anschau Fernando,Costa Flávia Carvalho Cardoso,Nascimento Francine Janaina Magalhães,Bartolazzi Frederico,Grizende Genna Maira Santos,Vianna Heloisa Reniers,Nepomuceno Jomar Cristeli,Ruschel Karen Brasil,Zandoná Liege Barella,Castro Luís César de,Souza Maíra Dias,Carneiro Marcelo,Bicalho Maria Aparecida Camargos,Vilaça Mariana do Nascimento,Bonardi Naiara Patrícia Fagundes,Oliveira Neimy Ramos de,Lutkmeier Raquel,Francisco Saionara Cristina,Araújo Silvia Ferreira,Delfino-Pereira Polianna,Marcolino Milena Soriano
Abstract
ObjectivesTo assess the ABC2-SPH score in predicting COVID-19 in-hospital mortality, during intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and to compare its performance with other scores (SOFA, SAPS-3, NEWS2, 4C Mortality Score, SOARS, CURB-65, modified CHA2DS2-VASc, and a novel severity score).Materials and methodsConsecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to ICUs of 25 hospitals, located in 17 Brazilian cities, from October 2020 to March 2022, were included. Overall performance of the scores was evaluated using the Brier score. ABC2-SPH was used as the reference score, and comparisons between ABC2-SPH and the other scores were performed by using the Bonferroni method of correction. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.ResultsABC2-SPH had an area under the curve of 0.716 (95% CI 0.693–0.738), significantly higher than CURB-65, SOFA, NEWS2, SOARS, and modified CHA2DS2-VASc scores. There was no statistically significant difference between ABC2-SPH and SAPS-3, 4C Mortality Score, and the novel severity score.ConclusionABC2-SPH was superior to other risk scores, but it still did not demonstrate an excellent predictive ability for mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Our results indicate the need to develop a new score, for this subset of patients.