Estimating the time of infection for African swine fever in pig farms in Korea

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious and lethal disease with characteristics of hemorrhagic fever. ASF outbreaks in pig farms significantly damage the entire pork industry. Understanding the transmission dynamics of ASF is crucial to effectively respond. Notably, it is important to know when the infection started on the outbreak farm. This study aimed at establishing a procedure for estimating the time of infection on pig farms affected by the ASF outbreak in Korea. The protocol for sampling to detect ASF virus infection, the estimation of the time interval between infection and detection, and the estimation of the infection stage parameters for the simulation model were described. After infection, fattening sheds (9.8 days in median) had the longest detection time compared with pregnant (8.6 days) or farrowing sheds (8.0 days). The intervals were 8.8 days for farrow-to-finisher farms, 7.0 days for farrow-to-weaning farms, and 9.5 days for fattening farms. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into ASF outbreaks in pig farms thus, improving the disease control ability.