Targeted sampling reduces the uncertainty in force of infection estimates from serological surveillance

Abstract

Age bins are frequently used in serological studies of infectious diseases in wildlife to deal with uncertainty in the age of sampled animals. This study analyzed how age binning and targeted sampling in serological surveillance affect the width of the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the estimated force of infection (FOI) of infectious diseases. We indicate that the optimal target population with the narrowest 95% CI differs depending on the expected FOI using computer simulations and mathematical models. In addition, our findings show that we can substantially reduce the number of animals required to infer transmission risk by tailoring targeted, age-based sampling to specific epidemiological situations.