Assessments of epidemic spread in aquaculture: comparing different scenarios of infectious bacteria incursion through spatiotemporal hybrid modeling

Abstract

The sustainable development of the aquaculture sector is at risk due to the significant challenges posed by many emerging infectious diseases. While disease prevention and control measures are becoming increasingly critical, there is a dearth of studies on the epidemiological aspects of disease transmission in aquatic ecosystems. This study aims to forecast the spread of a bacterial disease between fish farms in two regions, Romsdalsfjord in Norway and Gujwa in South Korea by applying a DTU-DADS-Aqua spatiotemporal hybrid simulation model. The simulation model assessed the pattern of disease transmission between fish farms under different degrees of transmission power based on the distance between farms (ScalingInf), host susceptibility (RelSusceptibility), the origin site of disease, and the capacity of culling fish. The distance between fish farms was found to have significant associations with disease transmission. In most simulation conditions, the disease transmission between different bay management areas (BMAs) was not evident in Romsdalsfjord. In the Guwja region, where there are relatively narrow distances between fish farms, the spread of infectious disease was greatly affected by ScalingInf. The impact of RelSusceptibility on disease transmission patterns is a critical factor to consider in simulation modeling. When RelSusceptibility ranges from 0.5–1, there is little impact on the likelihood of disease transmission. Conversely, lower ranges (0.2 and 0.05) of RelSusceptibility result in a significant decrease in the area affected by the spread of disease. Eradication measures could control the patterns of infectious disease transmission, but the effectiveness of the depopulation strategy can be dramatically changed depending on the geographical environment. In conclusion, through a comparative analysis of the disease transmission and management scenarios, this study demonstrates the potential use of existing simulation models in predicting the spread of infectious diseases under different epidemiological circumstances and quarantine actions.