Bayesian network analysis enhancing alternative design schemes of large-scale offshore systems

Abstract

The design for large-scale offshore systems like renewable energy systems as well as ship structures represents the key factor for the investigation and application of such devices. The existing guide for design schemes of offshore systems cannot cover novel large-scale design demand for recent offshore systems, as a result of the fast-growing scale of offshore systems but the late update of guides. To this end, this paper proposes a novel risk estimation approach of alternative design schemes for large-scale offshore systems as a basis to support the design scheme determinations. Initially, the risks of design schemes are analyzed by fault tree analysis. Subsequently, Bayesian networks and fuzzy sets are employed to calculate the reliability of alternative designs that comply with, or deviate from, the existing guides. The risk level of alternative designs is assessed to ensure the better performance of alternative design schemes in terms of safety. The Bayesian network approach proposed also accretions the weak links in the alternative designs. The results of this paper contribute to enhancing the survivability of offshore systems, such as renewable energy systems as well as ship structures.