Satellite imagery in evaluating oil spill modelling scenarios for the Syrian oil spill crisis, summer 2021

Abstract

The second-largest oil pollution incident in the Eastern Mediterranean Levantine basin, following the oil pollution crisis in Lebanon in 2006, is considered to be the oil leakage from the Syrian Baniyas power plant (summer 2021), during which 12,000 tons of oil were released. At the operational phase, the everyday predictions of oil drift were provided using the MEDSLIK and MEDSLIK-II models in the framework of an agreement between the Mediterranean Operational Network for Global Ocean Observing System (MONGOOS) and the Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Response Centre for the Mediterranean (REMPEC). In this work, we present a novel post-operational comprehensive model-based analysis, conducting a SAR validation in two model outputs: the MEDSLIK and the OpenDrift models. Each simulation is initiated with the operationally acquired EMSA-CSN and ESA SAR images. Moreover, the high-resolution met-ocean fields (CYCOFOS, SKIRON) are used to force the oil drift and transformation in both models. The spill was developed under the calm-wind conditions that prevailed during the incident. We found that the boundary sea currents developed on the periphery of the Lattakia eddies (anticyclonic and cyclonic) were responsible for the fast westward spreading of the oil spill offshore in the NE Levantine, the north-south pathway bifurcation, and re-landing of oil in the extended coastal area of Lattakia. Model outputs were validated against Synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) images with appropriate performance metrics, used for the first time, to assess the capacity of a reliable representation of oil spill drift. The intercomparison between the two oil spill models indicated that both models produce almost similar results, while their validation against the satellite SAR observations illustrates moderate accuracy.