Investigating the spatio–temporal characteristics of lower atmospheric ducts across the China seas by performing a long–term simulation using the WRF model

Abstract

In this work, a diagnostic scheme for lower atmospheric ducts was established based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. More specifically, a 10-year simulation test was conducted for the China seas to investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics of the lower atmospheric ducts phenomenon. Compared with the sounding data, the long-term simulations showed a high temporal correlation and the root mean square error of the modified atmospheric refractivity remained between 4 M and 7 M. Based on the simulations, significant regional differences in the occurrence probability of lower atmospheric ducts were detected from south to north. Among them, the surface ducts near the sea surface exhibited the highest occurrence probability, with higher probabilities being recorded in autumn and winter, and the probability gradually increased with the decreasing latitude. The spatio-temporal characteristics of duct height, thickness, and strength were generally consistent. In the seas at mid-latitudes, strong ducts mostly occurred in the spring and autumn, with the single-layer ducts being predominant and the first layer duct showing stronger characteristics than the second layer. In the lower latitude regions, the situation was exactly the opposite. The first duct layer, which existed throughout the year, exhibited weaker characteristics with less pronounced seasonal variations. On the other hand, the second duct layer demonstrated stronger features.